Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 28 May 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. Late May in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 28–32 °C as the city transitions into early summer, though heat waves can push readings above 35 °C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range before the resolution cutoff.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine forecasting difficulty rather than certainty of outcome. Historical May temperatures at Pudong show considerable year-to-year variation; 2023 recorded a 28 May high of 31.1 °C, whilst 2022 saw 29.4 °C. East Asian monsoon patterns and subtropical high-pressure systems create volatility in late-May Shanghai weather. Comparable weather markets on this platform have shown that extreme-range outcomes (above 36 °C or below 20 °C) attract minimal trading activity, concentrating liquidity in the 28–32 °C bands where climatological norms cluster.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 28 May, particularly alerts for heat waves or unusual pressure systems. El Niño and La Niña phases influence East Asian summer onset timing; current Pacific conditions will shape whether late May 2026 experiences typical seasonal warmth or anomalous extremes. Real-time Wunderground data becomes the sole arbiter at settlement, so station-specific factors—airport location, measurement height, sensor calibration—matter more than broader Shanghai city forecasts.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.