Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

The United States and Iran have maintained an undeclared ceasefire since early 2024, following escalations that included Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Israeli territory and subsequent Israeli air operations near Iranian nuclear facilities. This market tests whether that restraint holds through a specified date, with resolution triggered only if the US government officially confirms or credible reporting establishes overwhelming consensus that American kinetic military action occurred on Iranian soil before the deadline. The confirmation window is narrow: qualifying actions must be publicly established within one calendar day of occurrence.

Historical precedent suggests high barriers to sustained US-Iran military escalation absent direct provocation. The 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani prompted Iranian retaliation but not sustained conflict; the 2019 Abqaiq oil facility attack, attributed to Iran-aligned forces, drew no direct US kinetic response. Current probability at 100% reflects market participants' assessment that neither party faces sufficient domestic or regional pressure to initiate kinetic action in the near term, though this assumes no major catalyst—Israeli operations, nuclear programme developments, or proxy attacks—fundamentally alters calculations.

Traders should monitor announcements from the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding Iranian nuclear activity, statements from US State Department officials on diplomatic channels, and reporting on regional proxy activities. Recent Reuters coverage (January 2025) noted continued US diplomatic engagement with Iran through intermediaries. Any public US military movement toward Iranian airspace, statements from Pentagon officials regarding operational readiness, or Iranian announcements of nuclear programme acceleration would signal shifting risk profiles. The resolution mechanism's one-day confirmation requirement means markets may lag actual events by hours.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.