Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Shenzhen's subtropical climate typically produces May highs between 28 and 34 degrees Celsius, though extremes occasionally breach 35°C during early heat waves. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical database for that specific station and date, with the window closing at midday UTC.

The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a particular range or sparse trading activity at present. Historical May temperatures at Bao'an show consistent clustering: the past five years' May 27 readings have ranged from 29 to 32°C, with only two instances exceeding 31°C. This narrow historical band suggests traders may be anchoring to the most frequent outcome, though seasonal variability and occasional subtropical pressure systems can produce outliers. Comparable Chinese coastal stations (Guangzhou, Hong Kong) show similar May patterns, reinforcing the baseline expectation.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week prior to 27 May, particularly alerts for early-season heat events or tropical systems. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 may influence regional temperature patterns. From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction: German traders face GlüStV restrictions on prediction markets, whilst US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like instruments. No-KYC access up to $1,500 typically permits casual participation without identity verification on compliant platforms, though settlement verification may require documentation regardless of entry threshold.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.