Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the day’s **highest air temperature at Incheon International Airport**, which the market sources from Wunderground and then maps into a temperature band for settlement. June in Seoul and north-western Korea is usually early summer rather than peak heat, with typical daytime highs around the upper 20s Celsius and rising humidity as the month progresses; that makes a very high reading possible, but a truly hot outlier needs a strong warm spell rather than ordinary seasonal warmth.[1][2][6]

The current **0% YES** crowd price is best read as a market signal, not a weather forecast. Comparable June climate references for Seoul point to average highs around 26-28°C, with June generally warm but below midsummer extremes, so a move into the highest bands would normally require an unusually hot afternoon rather than routine conditions.[1][3][7] For accessibility and compliance, a market on weather settlement is not itself a regulated derivative in the usual sense, but any platform access terms still matter: German **GlüStV** issues are usually about whether the venue is treated as gambling under local law, while **US CFTC** reach is most relevant if a product is structured or promoted as a derivatives market to US persons.

For traders, the key catalysts are the observed local forecast, the timing of any rain or cloud cover, and the day’s heating profile at the airport station rather than Seoul city-centre conditions. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range products are useful for checking whether a morning estimate is being revised towards a warmer afternoon, and Wunderground’s daily history page is the settlement reference point for the final recorded high.[5] On access, “**no-KYC up to $1,500**” means a user can usually place only modest-size activity before identity verification is triggered, which can improve entry for smaller participants but does not remove jurisdictional or account-level restrictions tied to the market’s availability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.