Starmer out by...?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Keir Starmer became Prime Minister in July 2024 following Labour's general election victory. This market examines whether he will cease holding that office at any point between early February and the end of 2025. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of immediate political mechanisms that would typically trigger a change of Prime Minister within an eleven-month window—no general election is scheduled, and Labour holds a substantial parliamentary majority of 137 seats.

Historical precedent suggests prime ministerial departures within a single year are uncommon in modern British politics. Theresa May lasted two years and eight months despite significant backbench pressure; Boris Johnson faced sustained rebellion but remained in post for three years before resignations from his government forced his hand in September 2022. The most recent involuntary departure was Johnson's, which followed weeks of ministerial departures rather than a single triggering event. For Starmer to exit by December 2025 would require either a catastrophic loss of parliamentary confidence, a health crisis, or a personal scandal of sufficient magnitude to trigger mass ministerial resignations—scenarios without current indicators.

Traders should monitor parliamentary arithmetic closely, particularly any significant by-election losses that might erode Labour's majority, alongside economic data releases that could shift public confidence metrics. The Spring 2025 budget announcement and any major policy reversals would signal shifting political stability. Recent reporting from the Financial Times and BBC Parliament coverage indicates stable government operations, though backbench discontent over specific policies occasionally surfaces. Any formal announcement of resignation or removal would immediately resolve this market to Yes, regardless of implementation timing.

Methodology

We track Starmer out by...? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.