Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will determine which Celsius range resolves as correct. Historical May data from this station shows typical highs between 20–24°C, though heat waves can push readings above 28°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder pending resolution data, a common pattern for weather markets with distant settlement dates and narrow outcome bands.

May temperatures in the Île-de-France region depend heavily on Atlantic weather patterns and jet stream positioning. Météo-France publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks before settlement; their May 2026 outlook will be the primary catalyst for market movement. Secondary signals include soil moisture anomalies reported by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and any spring heat-wave alerts issued by French authorities in early May. The Paris-Le Bourget station, located north-east of the city centre, typically records 0.5–1.5°C lower maxima than central Paris due to elevation and urban heat island effects.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls within the German GlüStV framework if accessed by German residents, requiring compliance with state-level gaming authority rules. US CFTC jurisdiction does not typically extend to binary weather outcomes on non-financial underlying assets, though US traders should verify their broker's terms. The £1,500 KYC exemption threshold available on some platforms means traders can access this market with minimal identity verification provided their account balance and transaction size remain below that limit, though settlement and withdrawal may trigger standard anti-money-laundering checks.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.