Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The National Weather Service maintains continuous temperature records at this major metropolitan station, and the settlement will depend on the single highest reading captured across all hours of that day, measured in Fahrenheit and sourced through Wunderground's historical database.

New York's late May temperatures typically cluster between 75 and 85 degrees Fahrenheit, with historical May 30th data showing a median high near 78°F and occasional outliers reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect no extreme heat event, reflecting baseline seasonal expectations rather than any specific meteorological forecast. Comparable years—such as 2012, when May 30th reached 89°F during an early-season heat dome—demonstrate that upper-range outcomes remain plausible but require unusual atmospheric conditions.

The primary catalyst for this market is the National Weather Service's extended forecast window, which typically gains precision 10–14 days before the settlement date. Traders should monitor late May 2026 weather pattern discussions from the Climate Prediction Center, particularly any signals of high-pressure systems or tropical moisture intrusions that could elevate temperatures above the 85–90°F threshold. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 30 May, meaning traders have until midday to assess final conditions before Wunderground's historical record becomes definitive. No regulatory barriers apply to UK residents under the £1,500 no-KYC threshold on platforms compliant with GlüStV principles, though US CFTC reach may apply to certain derivative structures.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.