Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots | 71% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots | 70% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 68% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 60% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 59% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 57% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Mike Maignan: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 45% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 42% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 26% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Isak: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The France vs. Sweden - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of France vs. Sweden - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Tax UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Tax UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Tax UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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