Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 70% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 20% |
| Dylan Cease | 13% |
| Paul Skenes | 7% |
| Cam Schlittler | 2% |
| Garrett Crochet | 1% |
| Tarik Skubal | 1% |
| Jesús Luzardo | 1% |
| Hunter Brown | 1% |
| Sonny Gray | 1% |
| Bryan Woo | 1% |
| Shota Imanaga | 1% |
| Reid Detmers | 1% |
| Nolan McLean | 1% |
| Max Fried | 1% |
| Kevin Gausman | 1% |
| Logan Webb | 0% |
| Freddy Peralta | 0% |
| Carlos Rodón | 0% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 0% |
| Zack Wheeler | 0% |
| Joe Ryan | 0% |
| Taj Bradley | 0% |
| José Soriano | 0% |
| Logan Gilbert | 0% |
| Emerson Hancock | 0% |
| Hunter Greene | 0% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0% |
| Pitcher A | 0% |
| Pitcher B | 0% |
| Pitcher C | 0% |
| Pitcher D | 0% |
| Pitcher E | 0% |
| Pitcher F | 0% |
| Pitcher G | 0% |
| Pitcher H | 0% |
| Pitcher I | 0% |
| Pitcher J | 0% |
| Pitcher K | 0% |
| Pitcher L | 0% |
| Pitcher M | 0% |
| Pitcher N | 0% |
| Pitcher O | 0% |
| Pitcher P | 0% |
| Pitcher Q | 0% |
| Pitcher R | 0% |
| Pitcher S | 0% |
| Pitcher T | 0% |
| Pitcher U | 0% |
| Pitcher V | 0% |
| Pitcher W | 0% |
| Pitcher X | 0% |
| Pitcher Y | 0% |
| Pitcher Z | 0% |
| Pitcher AA | 0% |
| Pitcher AB | 0% |
| Pitcher AC | 0% |
| Pitcher AD | 0% |
| Pitcher AE | 0% |
| Pitcher AF | 0% |
| Pitcher AG | 0% |
| Pitcher AH | 0% |
| Pitcher AI | 0% |
| Pitcher AJ | 0% |
| Pitcher AK | 0% |
| Pitcher AL | 0% |
| Pitcher AM | 0% |
| Pitcher AN | 0% |
| Pitcher AO | 0% |
| Pitcher AP | 0% |
| Pitcher AQ | 0% |
| Pitcher AR | 0% |
| Pitcher AS | 0% |
| Pitcher AT | 0% |
| Pitcher AU | 0% |
| Pitcher AV | 0% |
| Pitcher AW | 0% |
| Pitcher AX | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mlb: strikeouts leader - pitcher stands at 70% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the most strikeouts among pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this …
Methodology
This overview of MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Tax UK has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Tax UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
Trade MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher on Polymarket Tax UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →