Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, has experienced significant traffic disruption since mid-2024 owing to regional tensions, Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, and consequent rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. IMF Portwatch data showed a 7-day moving average of daily transit calls (container, tanker, dry bulk, and general cargo vessels) declining from historical norms of 60–70 arrivals per day to lows in the 30–45 range by late 2024. For this market to resolve "Yes," that metric must recover to 60 or above by mid-June 2026—a threshold representing near-full restoration of pre-disruption throughput.

Historical precedent suggests such recoveries take 12–18 months once underlying security conditions stabilise. The 2019 tanker attacks and subsequent Strait closures saw traffic rebound within roughly a year once insurance costs fell and shipping confidence returned. Current probability of 9% reflects trader scepticism about either rapid de-escalation in the region or sustained appetite among operators to resume direct transit rather than accept longer, costlier Cape routes. The market's sensitivity hinges on whether regional actors (Iran, Houthis, US naval presence) reach a tacit or formal understanding that permits normal commerce.

Key catalysts include any ceasefire agreement in Yemen, changes to US or Iranian policy posture, insurance premium adjustments, or announcements by major shipping lines committing to Hormuz routes. Recent reports from maritime insurers and the International Maritime Organization will signal confidence shifts. Traders should monitor IMF Portwatch releases directly, as the 7-day moving average is the sole settlement criterion; spot incidents or temporary disruptions will not trigger resolution unless they fail to prevent sustained recovery to the 60-call threshold.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.