Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Market context

Masoud Pezeshkian assumed Iran's presidency in August 2024 following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. This market tests whether Pezeshkian will remain in office through 31 December 2026, with the 36% implied probability reflecting material uncertainty around his tenure despite his recent inauguration. Resolution triggers on any announcement of resignation or removal, regardless of implementation timing, and includes scenarios where he is detained or permanently prevented from executing presidential duties.

Iranian presidential transitions have historically occurred through electoral cycles, constitutional term limits, and occasional extra-constitutional removals. Raisi's unexpected death in May 2024 demonstrated the vulnerability of the office to sudden events; Pezeshkian's election was held within weeks under emergency procedures. The current probability reflects both baseline institutional stability—Iranian presidents typically serve full terms—and specific risks including factional opposition within Iran's clerical establishment, potential health incidents, and external pressures. Pezeshkian's reformist positioning has generated friction with hardline factions, though he lacks the revolutionary credentials that might trigger accelerated removal.

Key catalysts include Iran's 2025 parliamentary elections in March, which will signal factional strength and may determine Pezeshkian's legislative capacity to govern. Traders should monitor announcements from Iran's Supreme Leader's office, statements from the Guardian Council, and any health-related disclosures. Regional escalation—particularly involving Israel or the United States—could destabilise his position, though Iran's presidential structure provides significant insulation from sudden external shocks. Under UK tax treatment and German GlüStV regulations, this geopolitical market remains accessible to UK traders; US CFTC restrictions apply to US persons, whilst the no-KYC threshold up to $1,500 allows retail participation without identity verification on qualifying platforms.

Methodology

We track Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.