Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs features a Counter-Strike upper bracket quarterfinal between 3DMAX and magic, scheduled for 27 May 2026 at 06:00 ET. The best-of-three format determines advancement; either team's victory settles the market accordingly. Cancellation, ties, or delays exceeding seven days without resolution trigger a 50-50 settlement. Incomplete matches where one team forfeits also resolve to the winning team, provided the match has commenced.

The 25% implied probability for 3DMAX reflects their recent competitive standing relative to magic within the Stake circuit. Historical precedent in ranked Counter-Strike tournaments shows that upper bracket positioning correlates with team consistency, but upsets occur frequently enough that underdog probabilities rarely fall below 15–20% in quarterfinal matchups. Magic's qualification to this stage suggests comparable capability; the crowd's assessment likely incorporates recent map pool performance, roster stability, and head-to-head records from preceding tournament phases.

Traders should monitor official Stake tournament communications for any schedule adjustments or roster changes announced before 27 May. Counter-Strike fixture delays are common due to technical issues or administrative requirements; the seven-day grace period in the resolution criteria provides material buffer, but early confirmation of match commencement remains critical. Regulatory access to this market varies by jurisdiction: German players face GlüStV restrictions on unlicensed betting derivatives; US-based traders encounter CFTC oversight of prediction contracts, though no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure typically permits participation in individual esports markets below that threshold without identity verification. UK residents operate under FCA guidance treating prediction markets as financial instruments when leverage or derivatives features apply.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.