Bitcoin price on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at noon Eastern Time on 28 May 2026. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current inability to price a specific Bitcoin level nearly two years forward, where volatility and regulatory shifts remain largely unforecastable. Settlement depends on a single data point—the official Binance close at that precise minute—making execution risk minimal once the date arrives, though price discovery between now and then will determine whether any bracket resolves affirmatively.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility hinges on jurisdiction-specific KYC thresholds. Under Germany's GlüStV framework, prediction markets on commodity prices face stricter licensing requirements than sports or political markets; traders in that jurisdiction should verify their platform's compliance status. In the United States, the CFTC's authority over Bitcoin derivatives has expanded since 2023, though cash-settled prediction markets occupy a grey zone distinct from regulated futures. Many platforms permit trading up to $1,500 notional exposure without full KYC, a threshold that applies here—meaning UK and EU residents can often participate with minimal identity verification, though settlement and withdrawal may trigger additional scrutiny depending on the operator's banking relationships.

Bitcoin's price trajectory into May 2026 will be shaped by macroeconomic policy shifts, institutional adoption milestones, and potential regulatory announcements from the SEC or Treasury. Halving events, which occur roughly every four years, last occurred in April 2024; the next is expected in 2028, placing this settlement date in a post-halving, pre-halving cycle where historical precedent offers limited guidance. Traders should monitor Federal Reserve policy, spot ETF flows, and any major exchange regulatory actions as leading indicators.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.