Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event underpinning this market is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, a date that historically sits at the cusp of Seoul’s early summer heat and the onset of the monsoon season. Long-term averages suggest daytime highs around 26°C, with a typical range of 19–28°C, meaning extreme heat is uncommon but not impossible as humidity rises toward late June[1][2].

Historically, June in Seoul has rarely produced temperatures exceeding 32°C, with most years clustering firmly within the 24–28°C band; the current 0% crowd-implied probability for higher ranges aligns with this pattern, as no significant comparable event in the past decade has breached the upper thresholds this market tests[2][4]. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and any sudden shifts in regional humidity or cloud cover, as these are the primary catalysts that could push temperatures beyond the norm[6]. Recent reports from local travel guides note that late June often feels noticeably hotter and more humid than early June, with a higher chance of afternoon rain, a dependency that could suppress peak temperatures rather than elevate them[4].

From a regulatory standpoint, this market’s accessibility hinges on jurisdictional frameworks: the German GlüStV may restrict participation for German residents unless licensed, while the US CFTC’s reach extends to any trader accessing the platform from American soil, regardless of KYC status. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision allows traders in many jurisdictions to participate without identity verification, but this does not override local gambling or tax laws, meaning users must still assess their own compliance obligations before engaging[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.