Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The event is the **highest daytime temperature** recorded at Incheon Intl Airport Station on 15 June, settled from Wunderground’s daily history page. For a city-adjacent airport station in early summer, the key issue is not whether Seoul can get warm — it can — but whether the day’s top reading lands in a higher or lower Celsius band than traders expect, especially if showers, cloud cover, or coastal airflow keep the maximum down. June in Seoul is typically warm rather than peak-summer hot, with typical daytime ranges cited around 19–28°C, while the monsoon period usually starts later in the month, so mid-June still often produces usable outdoor weather windows.[1][2]

The current **0% YES** price is best read as a market-specific scepticism about the eventual settlement band, not as a statement that the airport cannot record a warm afternoon. Comparable June climate guides describe Seoul as early summer, with rising humidity and only a gradual move towards hotter, wetter conditions later in the month.[1][2][7] That framing matters for regulation as well: if the venue is accessible in Germany, a weather market can still sit within the broader GlüStV risk analysis around authorised gambling-type products and consumer safeguards, while US persons face separate exposure because the CFTC’s jurisdiction can reach event-contract style products even when the underlying reference is weather rather than finance. A “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold usually means limited onboarding checks at lower cumulative volumes, which can make the market easier to access for small positions, but it does not remove withdrawal, sanctions, or geoblocking controls where they apply.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.