Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Shenzhen's climate during late May sits firmly within the pre-monsoon warm season, with historical highs typically between 28 and 34 degrees Celsius. The settlement relies on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station, making data availability and station continuity the primary resolution dependencies.

The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse trading activity on this particular market. Historical May temperatures at Bao'an show consistency year-on-year, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C or falling below 27°C. Comparable weather prediction markets on similar Asian airport stations have typically seen clustering around the 30–33°C range during this period. Traders should cross-reference China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May 2026, though seasonal patterns suggest limited volatility compared to typhoon-season months.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction and stake size. Under German GlüStV provisions, prediction markets on weather events face lighter scrutiny than financial derivatives, though operators must maintain proper licensing. US CFTC reach extends to US-based traders; weather derivatives fall outside direct CFTC futures jurisdiction but may trigger anti-manipulation rules if large positions emerge. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 typically apply that threshold per market or per account, meaning a single weather bet could remain unverified if kept below that limit, though this varies by operator registration and user location.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.