Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 4 June 2026 will be measured at Bao'an International Airport, where the highest temperature recorded throughout that day determines the settlement outcome. Early June in Shenzhen falls within the pre-monsoon transition period, with typical daily highs ranging between 28–32°C, though humidity levels often exceed 70%. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database for the airport station, which serves as the official reference point.

Historical temperature records for Shenzhen in early June show considerable consistency year-on-year, with extreme highs above 35°C occurring in roughly 5–10% of cases over the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity driving price discovery. Comparable markets on regional weather outcomes typically see repricing once June approaches and seasonal forecasts become more granular; current odds warrant scrutiny against meteorological normals rather than accepting the flat assessment.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets require licensing unless they fall within narrow exemptions; UK-based traders face no specific KYC threshold for weather derivatives under £1,500 notional exposure, though operators must comply with Gambling Commission oversight. US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading on unregistered platforms, regardless of settlement currency. For traders in compliant jurisdictions, the absence of KYC requirements up to $1,500 means entry friction remains minimal, though position limits and account verification may apply at settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.