Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific date and location, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the settlement window close. Seoul's late May climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with average highs around 26–28°C, though extremes can push considerably higher during early heat waves or anomalous weather patterns.

The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse trading activity on this particular outcome. Historical May temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation; the highest May temperatures on record exceed 33°C, whilst cooler years remain in the mid-20s. Comparable weather prediction markets on similar dates and locations have resolved across the full range of pre-market expectations, suggesting that without recent meteorological forecasts or seasonal anomalies, traders should examine long-term climate data and any emerging El Niño or La Niña patterns that might influence late spring conditions in South Korea.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on the trader's jurisdiction and the platform's compliance framework. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets may require licensing; US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading on certain platforms, though weather derivatives occupy a grey area. Many platforms offer no-KYC trading up to $1,500 notional exposure, meaning traders below that threshold may participate without identity verification, though this market's settlement value will determine whether that threshold applies to individual positions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.