Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 4 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The resolution source is Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station, with temperature expressed in degrees Celsius. This market settles based on which temperature band—likely in 5°C or 10°C increments—contains that peak reading.

Early June in Seoul typically sits within a warm, humid transition period. Historical data from Incheon shows average highs around 24–26°C in early June, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C or above during heat waves. The current 0% probability on the upper ranges suggests traders are pricing in either a cooler-than-normal day or uncertainty about which specific band will resolve. Comparable markets on Seoul temperatures in May and June from previous years show that extreme heat (above 32°C) occurs roughly 10–15% of the time during this season, whilst temperatures between 25–28°C dominate the distribution.

Traders should monitor South Korea's meteorological forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), typically issued 7–10 days before the settlement date. Late May and early June weather patterns depend on the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system and any early monsoon activity. Any official heat-wave warnings issued by KMA in the week before 4 June would shift probabilities materially upwards. Additionally, El Niño or La Niña conditions active in spring 2026 may influence seasonal temperature trajectories, though such signals are already partially priced into current odds.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.