Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will settle into one of several defined ranges. Historical May temperatures at this station typically peak between 22–28°C, though outlier heat waves have driven readings above 30°C in recent decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder awaiting resolution data rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about the underlying weather event.

May temperatures in the Île-de-France region follow established seasonal patterns shaped by Atlantic weather systems and occasional continental high-pressure ridges. Comparable years—such as May 2022, which saw peak temperatures near 27°C at Le Bourget, and the notably warmer May 2018 with peaks around 29°C—provide empirical anchors for assessing plausible ranges. The absence of trading activity (reflected in the 0% reading) likely reflects the market's distance from settlement and the specificity required to predict a single day's maximum temperature months in advance.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting updates as May 2026 approaches, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Spring heat-wave patterns and any anomalous warming signals in March–April 2026 would warrant reassessment of tail-risk scenarios. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data feed from Paris-Le Bourget Airport; traders should verify the station's operational status and data continuity beforehand. The market's regulatory accessibility under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks remains standard for weather derivatives, with no-KYC access typically available up to €1,500 (approximately £1,275) per individual trader, though this market's specific terms should be confirmed with the host platform.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.