Highest temperature in London on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport meteorological station will fall within one of several defined ranges in Celsius. Resolution depends on historical data from Wunderground, which archives daily temperature records for this specific location. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for any final temperature adjustments recorded in the early morning hours.

London's June temperatures typically range between 15°C and 23°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 28°C during heatwaves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse trading activity. Historical precedent matters here: June 2022 saw the UK experience temperatures above 30°C, whilst June 2023 remained cooler and wetter than average. Comparable markets on UK weather have shown that crowd forecasts often underweight tail-risk scenarios—both unusually cold snaps and heat events—particularly when settlement windows extend months ahead.

Traders should monitor the UK Met Office's seasonal outlook for late May and early June 2026, which typically releases updated forecasts four to six weeks prior. Atlantic weather patterns, particularly the position of high-pressure systems over the British Isles, will be the primary driver of temperature extremes. Any significant climate anomalies or established El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 could shift baseline expectations. The London City Airport station's urban location means readings may run slightly warmer than rural comparables, a factor worth considering when evaluating historical analogues.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.