Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. This settlement relies on historical weather data logged by Weather Underground, which archives daily temperature extremes for the airport's official meteorological station. Beijing's early summer climate typically produces daytime highs between 28–32°C in early June, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are either awaiting clearer range definitions or treating this as a placeholder market pending finalisation of the specific temperature brackets.

Historical June temperatures at Beijing Capital Airport show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on or near 4 June ranged from 26°C to 35°C, reflecting the transition into the city's warm season but also the influence of monsoon patterns and occasional cooler fronts. This volatility explains why prediction markets on specific daily temperature ranges typically attract modest liquidity until the settlement window narrows. Comparable markets on Chinese weather stations have resolved across the full spectrum of pre-defined ranges, indicating that without knowing the exact threshold brackets offered here, traders cannot yet calibrate meaningful positions.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on the platform's jurisdiction and KYC thresholds. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets on weather events face classification as gaming contracts unless structured as financial derivatives. US CFTC oversight applies to platforms offering such markets to American traders, though weather derivatives themselves fall outside direct CFTC licensing if settled against published indices. Platforms operating under no-KYC regimes up to $1,500 notional exposure typically treat weather markets as low-risk, allowing anonymous participation below that threshold—though traders should verify their own platform's specific terms before committing capital.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.