World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will decide this market on **missed or saved penalties in normal play and extra time**, not shootout kicks, so the relevant tally depends on how many spot-kicks are actually awarded across the tournament and how many are converted. FIFA and IFAB have also broadened VAR use for 2026 tournament matches, including reviews for fouls directly leading to a penalty, which matters because a marginal on-field decision can create or remove a counted kick, while the new time-wasting and substitution provisions may slightly alter match rhythm and late-game pressure[1].

Historically, World Cup penalty volume is usually modest and concentrated in a small number of matches, which makes a low crowd-implied probability of **4% YES** consistent with a high threshold or a market that expects only a limited number of missed/saved attempts. Shootout history is largely irrelevant here because shootout penalties do not count, but it still frames why traders often overestimate penalty-heavy outcomes: decisive knockout matches can feature shootouts without affecting this settlement at all[3]. Recent coverage has also highlighted the premium placed on elite penalty takers, with Lionel Messi and Harry Kane tied on a World Cup penalty record, underlining that conversion quality and selection both matter in any tally of failed attempts[4].

From a regulatory and access angle, German-facing users should note that **GlüStV** restrictions can limit participation even where the market is technically visible, while the **US CFTC** has asserted broad reach over event contracts, so US access and enforcement risk depend on the platform’s structure rather than the football calendar itself. A stated **no-KYC up to $1,500** means smaller balances may be usable with lighter onboarding friction, which can widen accessibility for this specific market, but it does not remove geo-restrictions, compliance checks, or withdrawal controls if the platform later requires verification.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.