Ethereum price on May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Ether’s noon close on Binance’s ETH/USDT 1-minute candle is the pricing reference for this market, so the relevant question is simply where ETH is trading at 12:00 ET on 22 May. Recent printed levels have been near $2,116–$2,121, with Fortune noting $2,116.35 on 21 May and $2,120.69 on 20 May, which puts the settlement bands around common round-number thresholds rather than far from spot. With the crowd-implied YES probability at 0%, the market is effectively treating a sub-$2,050 outcome as unlikely, despite the pair spending much of this week close to the low $2,100s.

For context, crypto price markets are usually read through a regulatory and access lens as much as a chart lens. Under Germany’s GlüStV framework, prediction-market-style betting can sit in a tightly controlled gambling perimeter, which matters for cross-border liquidity and how participants think about venue risk. In the US, the CFTC’s reach remains relevant wherever a contract resembles a commodity derivative or event contract, so the legal classification of a price market can affect who can access it and on what terms. On a no-KYC basis, “up to $1,500” means the platform may allow relatively small participation without identity verification, but only within that cap; it does not remove withdrawal limits, sanctions screening, or the possibility of additional checks if activity is flagged.

Near-term catalysts are straightforward: Binance’s own ETH/USDT spot tape up to the noon candle, any sharp move in broader crypto risk sentiment, and any scheduled macro releases before the settlement window closes. The most visible recent reference point is the unchanged to slightly softer tone in the Fortune spot updates, which showed ETH drifting only a few dollars day to day rather than breaking out. That makes the final minute candle more sensitive to sudden order-flow, rather than to a known Ethereum-specific event; absent a fresh catalyst, the market is likely to track spot volatility and liquidity conditions into the close.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.