Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 May 2026, the lowest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The Japan Meteorological Agency publishes daily extrema for major airports; Wunderground aggregates this data in real time. May in Tokyo typically sees minimum temperatures between 15–20°C, though cooler-than-normal patterns occasionally push readings below 12°C. The 8% crowd probability implies traders assess a meaningful but low likelihood of an unusually cold day—consistent with late spring weather variability in the Kanto region, where cold fronts occasionally linger into late May following early-month warming.

Historical May temperature records at Haneda show that sub-10°C minima occur roughly once per decade; the 1990–2020 dataset records only three instances of temperatures below 10°C in late May. This rarity anchors the current probability. Comparable years—2003, 2011, and 2015—each saw unexpected cold snaps driven by upper-level troughs stalling over the Pacific. Traders monitoring seasonal forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and long-range models (GFS, ECMWF) issued in early May will gain material signal; any official guidance toward below-normal temperatures in the 10–20 May window would shift probabilities upward.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV rules (where applicable to EU traders) and falls outside direct CFTC jurisdiction as a non-US-domiciled event contract. Traders in most jurisdictions can access positions without KYC up to approximately $1,500 notional exposure, though verification requirements vary by platform and jurisdiction. Settlement relies on Wunderground's historical data feed, which typically finalises within 48 hours of the calendar day's close.

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.