Highest temperature in Wellington on May 26?

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Market context

Wellington International Airport's weather station will record the day's peak temperature on 26 May 2026. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data for that specific date and location, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent stage; no meaningful trading volume has yet established a consensus forecast for a date eighteen months forward.

May in Wellington falls within the Southern Hemisphere's autumn, when daily highs typically range between 13–16°C. Historical records from the airport station show considerable variability: the May average maximum sits around 14°C, though outliers have reached 21°C in unusually warm years and dipped below 10°C during cold snaps. Comparable May forecasting markets on similar temperate-zone airports have seen probability distributions cluster around the 12–18°C bands, with tail outcomes (sub-10°C or above-20°C) receiving minimal backing until seasonal patterns narrow the range closer to the event date.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Southern Oscillation Index and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Tasman Sea, both of which influence Wellington's autumn weather patterns. The New Zealand MetService publishes monthly outlooks; their May 2026 forecast—expected in early April 2026—will likely trigger repricing. From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls within prediction markets accessible under most jurisdictions' no-KYC thresholds up to USD $1,500 per trade, though German GlüStV and US CFTC oversight of cross-border participation remains applicable depending on trader location. Settlement data sourcing from Wunderground is publicly verifiable and non-discretionary, reducing counterparty risk typical of bespoke weather contracts.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.