Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest daily temperature on 25 May 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data logged at the station. The current 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than a consensus forecast; such early-stage weather markets typically show minimal trading volume until the event window approaches within two to three weeks.

May temperatures in Wellington cluster between 8–15°C, with historical highs rarely exceeding 18°C during autumn. The 0% reading suggests either no trades have yet been placed or traders are pricing in an expectation that the day will fall within a lower temperature band. Comparable May weather markets in Southern Hemisphere cities show similar probability distributions skewed toward cooler ranges, though individual days can deviate sharply from seasonal norms. The Wunderground historical database, cited as the resolution source, records intraday maxima with sufficient granularity to distinguish between narrow temperature bands, making this market sensitive to localised weather patterns rather than broad seasonal trends.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under different compliance frameworks depending on trader jurisdiction. German traders face GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) scrutiny, which classifies prediction markets as gaming products subject to licensing requirements. US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading on offshore platforms, though weather derivatives fall into a grey zone between commodity and gaming classification. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold common on some platforms means traders can access this market without identity verification below that stake level, though platform-specific terms apply. Traders should verify their own jurisdiction's treatment of prediction market participation before committing capital.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.