Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC. This is a straightforward meteorological measurement with no ambiguity in the underlying data source or methodology.

Wellington's winter climate in early June typically produces daily highs between 10–14°C, though variability is considerable depending on synoptic patterns. Historical records show that extreme outliers—temperatures above 18°C or below 5°C on this date—occur infrequently but are not unprecedented. The current crowd probability of 0% YES suggests either that traders are waiting for additional information before committing capital, or that the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful consensus. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket have historically seen late-stage movement as the settlement date approaches and forecasts narrow.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets on weather outcomes may fall outside gaming licensing if structured as information contracts rather than wagering products. In the United States, the CFTC's exemption for certain prediction markets applies where no leverage or margin is offered. For traders in KYC-exempt jurisdictions, many platforms permit positions up to $1,500 without identity verification, though this market's specific terms should be confirmed with the host. Traders should monitor the New Zealand MetService forecasts in the week preceding 4 June, as official updates typically drive late repositioning in weather markets.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.