Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event at hand is the highest temperature recorded on 26 June 2026 at Wellington International Airport in New Zealand, a date that falls squarely within the region’s cool winter season. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market expects temperatures to remain well below any threshold that would trigger a payout, which aligns with historical patterns for late June in Wellington.

Historical data and comparable cases show that Wellington’s June highs typically range between 8°C and 14°C, with averages closer to 9°C–10°C during the latter half of the month. For instance, recent forecasts for 21 June 2026 indicated a high of just 9°C with light rain and strong northwesterly winds, reinforcing the expectation that 26 June will follow a similar thermal profile[1]. This consistency in winter weather makes the 0% probability a rational reflection of climatic norms rather than an outlier.

Traders should monitor official weather updates from Wunderground and local meteorological services for any unexpected shifts, such as sudden warm air intrusions or changes in wind direction that could elevate temperatures. While no major announcements are scheduled specifically for 26 June, the broader June weather pattern in Wellington remains stable and cool, with rain and moderate winds dominating the period[10]. Any deviation from this pattern would be a notable catalyst, though current indicators suggest such a shift is unlikely.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.