Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 24 June 2026, with current crowd-implied probability sitting at 0% for any range above the baseline. Historical data shows June highs in Wellington typically hover between 8°C and 12°C, with the warmest day in June 2026 occurring on 9 June at 12.5°C [5]. However, NZ is experiencing an exceptionally warm June, with Wellington running approximately 3°C above normal as of mid-month, suggesting potential for record-breaking highs [7]. This anomaly frames the current 0% probability as possibly premature, given the unusual thermal conditions.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from NIWA and Wunderground updates for the airport station, particularly noting wind gusts and cloud cover which can suppress or elevate temperatures [2][3]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 24 June, so any late-morning temperature spikes will be decisive. Recent forecasts indicate a high of around 9°C with light rain and strong northerly winds, but the above-normal warmth trend could push this higher [2][7]. Accessibility for this market is enhanced by regulatory frameworks allowing no-KYC participation up to $1,500, though German GlüStV and US CFTC rules may impose additional compliance layers for larger trades or specific jurisdictions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.