Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the **highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 21 June 2026**, with settlement depending on the day’s maximum in degrees Celsius rather than the overnight low or a citywide average. June is normally a cool month in Wellington, with average daytime highs around the low teens Celsius, so the market is tied to an outlier rather than the base-rate daily climate.[2][6]

The crowd-implied **0% YES** price is best read against Wellington’s June temperature distribution: the city’s official winter highs are usually modest, but rare warm spikes do occur. NIWA’s record notes Wellington (Kelburn) reaching 30.3°C on the same date in a past heat event, showing that June extremes are possible even in winter, while MetService past-observation pages show how settlement sources typically record a single daily high for Wellington locations.[1][6] For traders, the key comparator is not “average June weather” but whether the airport station posts an unusual, record-type maximum before the market’s cut-off window closes.

On access and regulation, the practical point is that a market like this may sit inside **German GlüStV** gambling restrictions depending on how the offer is structured and accessed from Germany, so local availability can vary by user and platform implementation. The **US CFTC reach** is relevant because temperature contracts can resemble event derivatives, bringing US jurisdictional sensitivity if offered to, or traded by, US persons. “**No-KYC up to $1,500**” means a user may be able to participate below that threshold without full identity verification, but that does not remove geoblocking, jurisdiction checks, sanctions screening, or any platform-specific limits on who can access this particular market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.