Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows June highs typically range from 21°C to 28°C, with daily averages increasing by roughly 4°C throughout the month[1]. Recent records for 25 June specifically include a notable low of 22.9°C, marking the highest low temperature for that date since 1938, yet daily highs on similar dates frequently reach 25°C or 26°C[7][3]. This context explains why the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome (likely a specific high threshold) appears premature; comparable June events in Toronto have consistently breached the 24°C mark, pushing resolution into higher temperature buckets[3].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts and atmospheric dependencies, particularly solar radiation and wind patterns, which remain constant in June but can shift rapidly during heat events[1]. The AccuWeather forecast for Pearson International Airport in June 2026 indicates daily highs ranging from 68°F to 83°F (20°C to 28°C), suggesting significant volatility near the settlement window[4]. While no specific regulatory announcements are imminent, the market’s accessibility hinges on jurisdictional frameworks: German GlüStV implications may restrict access for residents, whereas US CFTC reach remains a factor for cross-border traders. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" provision allows immediate participation for smaller bets without identity verification, enhancing liquidity for this specific temperature event, though larger positions will require compliance checks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.