Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, with Wunderground's historical weather data serving as the authoritative source. Tokyo's late May climate typically sits between 24–28 °C, though heat waves can push readings above 30 °C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect no extreme outlier conditions for that specific date.

Historical May temperature records at Haneda show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, daily highs in late May ranged from 20 °C during cooler years to 31 °C during anomalously warm periods. The absence of any YES bets may reflect baseline seasonal expectations rather than confidence in a particular range; late May sits in spring's tail end before the sustained heat of June. Comparable markets on Tokyo temperatures have typically seen modest trading activity unless unusual weather systems approach the settlement date.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather market operates under different jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV treats prediction markets as gambling products requiring state licensing; UK-domiciled platforms must comply with Gambling Commission oversight. US CFTC jurisdiction over prediction markets remains contested, though weather derivatives fall outside commodity futures regulation when settled on non-leveraged cash outcomes. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 USD typically apply this threshold per calendar year or per transaction, meaning traders can place positions on this Tokyo temperature market without full identity verification provided individual stakes remain below that limit.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.