Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 May 2026, Tokyo will record a maximum temperature at Haneda Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement will depend on historical weather data published by Weather Underground, with the final figure locked in once the day's observations are complete. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that recorded high.

Late May in Tokyo typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with historical highs around 28–32°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or uncertain about which specific temperature band will resolve. Comparable May temperature markets in East Asia show that late-spring conditions favour moderate warming rather than extreme heat; Tokyo's average high for late May hovers near 26°C, though outlier days can push into the low 30s. The absence of trading activity may reflect limited liquidity rather than consensus that no resolution will occur.

Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the week preceding 23 May, which typically offer reliable 10-day outlooks. El Niño or La Niña patterns active in early 2026 will influence regional temperature anomalies. From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls within the German GlüStV framework if accessed from Germany, whilst US CFTC reach applies to US persons. Most prediction market platforms permit non-KYC participation up to approximately $1,500 notional exposure per user, meaning casual traders can engage without identity verification, though settlement and withdrawal may trigger compliance checks depending on jurisdiction and platform policy.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.