Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 22?

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Market context

The settlement is based on the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 22 May 2026, using Wunderground’s history page once the day is finalised. Late-May Tokyo is usually warm rather than hot: recent climate references put typical May highs around 24–27°C, with occasional runs into the low 30s, while the current crowd-implied 0% YES suggests the market is pricing an outcome outside the higher temperature bands. For a single-day weather event, the key is whether the airport sees a brief afternoon spike rather than the city average; Haneda can diverge slightly from central Tokyo because of its coastal location and local wind conditions.

Historical context points to a relatively tight spread for this sort of contract. Tokyo’s May climate data and recent weather histories show that temperatures often sit in the 20s Celsius, with only intermittent hotter days when southerly flow and clear skies align. The market is therefore usually read against the day’s synoptic set-up rather than long-run averages alone. Under German GlüStV rules, access can be more restricted than on a broadly available exchange, and US CFTC reach matters because some users may be blocked or limited depending on jurisdiction. On a no-KYC up to $1,500 basis, the practical effect is that smaller positions can often be opened without identity verification, but only where local onboarding and geoblocking permit access to this specific market.

The main catalysts are weather model updates, the morning conditions over eastern Honshu, and any strengthening of sunshine or down-slope wind that could lift the Haneda reading towards midday. For a 12:00 UTC settlement window, the relevant trading horizon is the hours before noon in Tokyo, when the daily maximum has often already been set or is close to it. Traders should watch Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts, local airport observations, and any sudden cloud cover or onshore breeze that could cap temperatures. If the day remains stable and bright, the risk shifts towards a modestly higher max; if cloud or sea-breeze effects arrive early, the ceiling stays lower.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.