Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8?

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Market context

On 8 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will determine which range this market settles into. The Japan Meteorological Agency operates the official weather station at Haneda, and Wunderground's historical database pulls directly from that feed. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning traders have until midday to assess preliminary readings before final resolution occurs.

Tokyo's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with mean highs around 27–28°C and occasional heat waves pushing into the low 30s. Historical comparison suggests the 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific range or thin liquidity on outlier outcomes. June 2025 saw Tokyo peak at 31.2°C on the 8th; the prior year's equivalent date reached 29.1°C. This variability—spanning roughly 2°C year-on-year—indicates that mid-range outcomes (28–31°C) carry material probability weight, whilst extreme highs above 35°C or lows below 24°C remain statistically improbable for this calendar date.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts released in May 2026 and any El Niño or La Niña updates from NOAA, which influence Pacific weather patterns affecting Japan. Urban heat island effects around Haneda have intensified marginally over the past decade, though the airport's waterfront location moderates extreme peaks. The settlement source's reliance on Wunderground's historical archive means data availability and timestamp accuracy become critical; any station maintenance or sensor recalibration scheduled near 8 June could affect recorded values. Real-time weather model consensus from late May will provide the most actionable signal for range positioning.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.