Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 1 August will be set by the day’s peak reading at Haneda Airport, so the market is really about whether the city gets an ordinary hot-summer high, or a more pronounced heat spike before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Tokyo’s August climatology is already warm, with typical highs around 31°C and monthly averages in the high 20s, while recent forecasts for August 2026 have placed daily highs broadly in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius. [11][1][2]

A 0% implied probability for the current range should be read against the fact that Tokyo has a long history of summer heat, including an all-time August high of 37.3°C in the historical record cited for the city. That means even if the market is currently pricing in an extremely mild outcome, the base rate for early-August Tokyo is still comfortably above the low 20s, and hotter-than-average days are common enough that a single weather shift can move the eventual settlement band materially. [3][11][14]

For accessibility, the venue matters as much as the forecast. If the platform is operating under German GlüStV constraints, that can affect how residents are gated, verified, or limited by local rules; in the US, CFTC reach is relevant where a platform or user falls within American regulatory jurisdiction; and “no-KYC up to $1,500” typically means smaller positions can be placed without identity checks until that threshold is hit, which improves entry for casual users but does not remove jurisdictional restrictions. The main live catalysts are the next Tokyo weather updates, any heat advisories or typhoon-related shifts in the forecast, and the actual Wunderground history page once the day’s readings begin to accumulate.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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