Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on data from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date and location, which serves as the official resolution source. Taipei's late May climate typically sees temperatures between 28–32°C, though extremes occasionally breach 35°C during early heat waves or remain below 26°C during cooler, wetter spells influenced by monsoon patterns.

Historical May temperature records for Taipei show considerable year-to-year variation. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which range will resolve or are awaiting clearer odds across the available brackets. Comparable May forecasts from prior years indicate that temperatures in the 30–32°C band occur most frequently, whilst readings above 33°C or below 27°C are less common but not exceptional. The current crowd assessment may reflect incomplete information about the specific temperature bands offered in this market's resolution structure.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under different frameworks depending on trader location. UK-based traders face no specific KYC requirement for positions under £1,500 notional value, though Polymarket itself enforces identity verification. US traders encounter CFTC jurisdiction over event contracts, whilst German participants fall under GlüStV gambling licensing rules. Weather derivatives of this type typically avoid classification as financial instruments in most jurisdictions, though regulatory treatment varies by platform and domicile. Traders should verify their local obligations before participation.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.