Highest temperature in Taipei on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Resolution depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific location and date, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC. The airport station serves as Taiwan's official reference point for Taipei's daily temperature extremes, making it a standardised measurement source across meteorological records.

Taipei's June temperatures typically range between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past five years shows considerable variation: June 2023 recorded a high of 34.1°C, whilst June 2021 reached 36.8°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarification on the specific temperature bands offered, or the market's resolution criteria remain under review. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms show that temperature ranges centred on seasonal norms attract the most liquidity, whilst extreme outlier ranges typically remain thinly traded.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction and operator licensing. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets require explicit gaming licences; US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives contracts on underlying commodities, though weather derivatives occupy a grey zone. Many platforms offer no-KYC trading up to $1,500 notional exposure, meaning participants below that threshold avoid identity verification—a material consideration for casual traders in low-stake weather markets. Traders should verify their platform's specific regulatory registration and whether settlement in Wunderground's historical database triggers any reporting obligations in their home jurisdiction.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.