Highest temperature in Taipei on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will determine which range this market settles into. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific location and date, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the settlement window close. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity and trader participation at present.

Taipei's June weather patterns show consistent heat and humidity. Historical June maxima at Songshan typically range between 32–35°C, with occasional spikes to 36°C during heat waves. The current zero probability assigned to this market may reflect either a narrow consensus around one specific range or sparse initial trading activity. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms often see probability distributions sharpen substantially as the event date approaches and more traders enter with regional climate knowledge or access to meteorological forecasts.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on trader jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets require licensing; UK traders face no specific prediction market licensing requirement but must comply with FCA guidance on unregulated derivatives. US CFTC reach extends to binary options and derivatives on weather indices, though spot weather contracts occupy a grey area. Many platforms offer no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure per market, meaning traders in certain jurisdictions can participate without identity verification below that threshold—though this market's specific platform terms should be verified. Traders should monitor Taiwan Meteorological Administration forecasts and tropical cyclone alerts in early June, as these directly influence temperature outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.