Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16?

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Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome of this market. The resolution will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs daily temperature extremes in Celsius. Songshan Airport, located in central Taipei, serves as the official observation point and provides reliable meteorological data used across regional forecasting services.

Taipei's June climate typically ranges between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical precedent from prior Junes shows that extreme temperatures above 37°C occur roughly once every three to five years, whilst readings below 28°C are rare. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the settlement range will fall within typical seasonal bounds rather than at the extreme tail. Comparable June records from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration indicate that sustained high-pressure systems and southwesterly flows drive the highest daily maxima; absence of such patterns would support lower outcomes.

Key variables include the timing and intensity of any pre-monsoon systems approaching Taiwan in mid-June 2026, as well as the phase of the Pacific subtropical high. Traders should monitor Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecasts released in early June and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, which can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and moisture. Urban heat island effects at Songshan may amplify readings relative to surrounding areas, a factor historical data confirms but which forecasts do not always capture precisely.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.