Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Singapore's daily maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Changi Airport Station and settled against historical data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, after which the highest temperature reading for the full calendar day becomes final. May sits within Singapore's inter-monsoon period, a transitional season between the southwest and northeast monsoons characterised by variable wind patterns and occasional afternoon thunderstorms that can suppress peak temperatures.

Historical May temperatures at Changi show a median daily maximum around 32–33°C, with extremes ranging from 29°C in cooler years to 35°C during particularly warm spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity in adjacent ranges. Comparable May datasets from the past decade indicate that readings above 34°C occur in roughly 20–30% of years, whilst sub-30°C days are rare. The current probability distribution warrants scrutiny against seasonal norms and any anomalous weather patterns forecast for late May 2026.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets require licensing; UK traders face no blanket prohibition but must verify their platform's FCA status. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives on certain commodities and financial indices, though weather derivatives occupy a grey zone depending on contract structure. Most platforms offer no-KYC trading up to $1,500 notional exposure, meaning this market remains accessible to retail traders in many jurisdictions without identity verification, provided individual position sizes remain modest. Traders should confirm their local regulatory environment before committing capital.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.