Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25?

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Market context

Singapore's daily maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Changi Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the final temperature reading must be confirmed before that point. May falls within Singapore's inter-monsoon period, typically characterised by afternoon thunderstorms and moderate heat rather than the extreme peaks of June–August.

Historical May data from Changi shows daily highs clustering between 32–34°C, with occasional spikes to 35°C during drier years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a baseline reference point rather than an active pricing signal. Comparable May markets in prior years have seen modest volatility driven by monsoon timing shifts; the inter-monsoon transition can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C relative to the dry season average. Recent El Niño or La Niña patterns would influence regional moisture and convection, though Singapore's maritime location buffers extreme swings.

Traders should monitor the UK Met Office and Singapore Meteorological Service forecasts released in early May, which typically refine precipitation and temperature bands 10–14 days ahead. The Meteorological Service issues daily nowcasts that affect intra-month adjustments. Regulatory access depends on jurisdiction: German traders face GlüStV restrictions on prediction markets unless using licensed operators; US CFTC oversight applies to binary derivatives but exempts certain non-leveraged event contracts under the Treasury Amendment. No-KYC access up to $1,500 on this market means retail traders in most jurisdictions can participate without identity verification below that threshold, though platform terms and local law remain binding.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.