Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen will experience late May heat typical of southern China's pre-monsoon season. Historical data from Bao'an International Airport shows May temperatures regularly exceed 30°C, with daily highs frequently reaching 32–35°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting settlement mechanics clarification or treating this as a straightforward seasonal forecast with limited uncertainty. Comparable May 25th readings from prior years cluster in the 31–34°C range, making extreme outliers (below 25°C or above 38°C) statistically improbable unless typhoon systems or unusual atmospheric patterns intervene.

The settlement mechanism depends on Wunderground's historical archive for Shenzhen Bao'an, which consolidates official meteorological records. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding May 25th, 2026, particularly any tropical cyclone watches affecting the Pearl River Delta region. Late May marks the tail end of spring before the southwest monsoon intensifies, so atmospheric stability typically favours predictable diurnal heating. The market resolves at 12:00 UTC on settlement day, capturing the full 24-hour temperature record once finalised on Wunderground's platform.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls under German GlüStV oversight if offered to German residents, whilst US CFTC jurisdiction applies to US persons accessing the platform. Many prediction market operators permit trading up to $1,500 notional value without KYC documentation, lowering friction for casual participants in jurisdictions with lighter-touch regimes. Traders should verify their local regulatory status and platform-specific terms before committing capital.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.