Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen will experience its early-summer weather pattern on 9 June 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. June sits within Shenzhen's pre-monsoon period, when daytime highs typically range between 28 and 34 degrees Celsius, though occasional heat waves can push readings above 35 degrees. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the outcome to fall outside the highest-temperature bracket offered, or that uncertainty about the exact range structure is suppressing participation.

Historical June temperatures at Bao'an show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, daily highs on or near 9 June ranged from 29 to 36 degrees Celsius, with most years clustering around 31–33 degrees. The absence of trading activity may reflect that the market's temperature brackets are either poorly calibrated relative to typical June conditions, or that traders lack confidence in Wunderground's historical data consistency for this specific station. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms typically see modest engagement unless extreme conditions are forecast.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on the operator's jurisdiction and trader location. Under German GlüStV rules, weather derivatives require appropriate licensing unless structured as exempt contracts. US CFTC oversight applies to prediction markets involving US persons, though weather outcomes generally fall outside commodity futures regulation. Many platforms offer no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure per trader, which would cover most single-outcome weather bets, though this threshold varies by operator and does not eliminate reporting obligations for larger cumulative positions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.