Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station, with the settlement hinging on the highest temperature recorded across all times that day. The resolution source is Wunderground's historical data portal for that specific station, which captures daily extremes in Celsius. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or minimal trading activity; either way, historical Shanghai May temperatures cluster between 28–32°C, making mid-to-high range outcomes statistically routine.

May represents late spring in Shanghai, when subtropical warming accelerates but pre-monsoon conditions remain variable. Comparable years show that late-May highs rarely exceed 35°C or fall below 26°C at Pudong. The current probability distribution reflects either a consensus view that one specific temperature bracket is overwhelmingly likely, or sparse liquidity across all brackets. Traders should cross-reference Wunderground's historical daily maxima for Shanghai across the past five Mays to calibrate baseline expectations against seasonal norms.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative sits within the German GlüStV framework if accessed from Germany—weather contracts are treated as financial instruments requiring proper licensing. US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading on prediction platforms; weather markets fall outside commodity futures exemptions. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold on many platforms means casual traders can participate without identity verification below that stake level, though platform terms vary. Traders should confirm their jurisdiction's stance and their platform's compliance posture before committing capital.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.