Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via historical weather data from Wunderground. Late May in Shanghai typically falls within the pre-monsoon transition period, with daily highs ranging from 28 to 32 °C, though anomalies above 35 °C occur roughly once per decade during early heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as predetermined by seasonal norms rather than contingent on specific atmospheric conditions.

Historical Shanghai weather records show that May temperatures cluster predictably around 30 °C, with extremes tracked reliably by the airport station for decades. The current zero probability reflects either thin liquidity or a consensus that no single day's high will deviate sharply from the seasonal mean. Comparable May markets in other East Asian cities have typically seen probability mass concentrated in the 28–32 °C bands, with tail outcomes (below 25 °C or above 35 °C) receiving minimal backing unless unusual weather systems are forecast weeks in advance.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls under German GlüStV oversight if accessed from Germany, whilst US CFTC reach extends to US persons regardless of jurisdiction. Most prediction market platforms operating under no-KYC thresholds up to $1,500 USD allow retail participation without identity verification, though settlement and withdrawal may trigger compliance checks depending on the operator's licensing. Traders should verify their platform's jurisdiction and settlement currency before entry, as temperature markets are typically classified as non-financial derivatives subject to varying reporting obligations across territories.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.