Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's Pudong International Airport will record a daily high temperature on 9 June 2026, measured in Celsius and settled against Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, capturing the peak temperature across all daylight and overnight hours. June falls within Shanghai's early summer season, when daytime highs typically range between 28–32°C, though humidity and occasional frontal systems can push readings higher or suppress them.

Historical June temperature records at Pudong show considerable year-to-year variation. The station has recorded June highs exceeding 35°C during heat waves, whilst cooler systems have kept peaks near 24–26°C. Current crowd probability sitting at 0% suggests traders are either awaiting clearer resolution criteria or treating this as a calibration market with limited early participation. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms show that temperature ranges attract modest liquidity until the settlement window narrows to within 7–10 days, when meteorological forecasts stabilise and traders gain confidence in their predictions.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, weather derivatives fall outside gaming regulation if structured as financial instruments, though classification remains contested. US CFTC oversight applies to contracts with US persons, though weather prediction markets typically escape direct commodity futures regulation. Most platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 USD treat weather markets as low-risk, since they involve no leverage, custody of assets, or counterparty credit exposure—making this market accessible to retail traders in most jurisdictions without identity verification below that threshold.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.