Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 8 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. June in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range before the market locks.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that heat will be absent. Historical Shanghai June data shows considerable year-to-year variance; the city recorded 37.2°C on 8 June 2013 but only 26.1°C on the same date in 2019. El Niño and Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure systems drive most summer temperature extremes in the region. Comparable weather prediction markets on Polymarket have shown that seasonal temperature ranges typically attract modest trading volume until five to seven days before settlement, when meteorological forecasts stabilise.

Under German GlüStV regulations, weather derivatives fall outside gaming licensing if they settle on objective third-party data—Wunderground qualifies. US CFTC oversight applies to US persons trading this contract; the agency treats weather futures as derivatives subject to position limits if notional value exceeds thresholds. Most prediction market platforms offer no-KYC access up to $1,500 cumulative exposure, meaning a trader can enter this Shanghai temperature market without identity verification provided their total open positions remain below that cap. Exceeding it triggers standard KYC requirements across most jurisdictions.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 8? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.