Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. Early June falls within Shanghai's late spring period, when daily highs typically range between 28–32 °C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no conviction in any specific temperature band, likely reflecting uncertainty about seasonal conditions three months ahead and the granularity of temperature-range brackets.

Historical Shanghai weather data from June shows considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, June highs at Pudong ranged from 26 °C in cooler years to 35 °C during heat events. The 2022 and 2023 summer seasons saw sustained high temperatures across eastern China, whilst 2020 and 2021 were comparatively moderate. This volatility explains why no single range commands meaningful probability; traders lack sufficient signal to differentiate between, say, a 28–30 °C day and a 32–34 °C day at this remove.

Catalysts include China's meteorological forecasts, which typically gain precision four to six weeks before the settlement date. El Niño or La Niña conditions, monitored by the China Meteorological Administration, influence regional temperature patterns. Additionally, any major weather systems crossing eastern China in late May or early June could shift expectations. Traders should monitor CMA seasonal outlooks released in April and May, and watch for any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific that might affect Shanghai's weather in early June. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 June, capturing the full calendar day's maximum temperature.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.